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A picture of tomorrow
Danger on the wind threatens soybean harvests

 

Farsighted products

Oligocenters or polycenters: this is what our world may look like in the future. As a raw materials manufacturer for the building industry, it is important for a company like Bayer to know whether future demand will focus on affordable renovation work or intelligent, high-tech building materials. As an automotive supplier, Bayer is interested in discovering what the major car markets of tomorrow will demand: inexpensive family cars or exclusive technology vehicles. How will the agricultural industry produce food for the people in the future? How will we manage health and care for the sick? How well-trained will future applicants be for a job at Bayer? All of these questions are critical to the work of Bayer’s Research, Product Planning, Marketing and even Human Resources departments.

Electricity from hydrogen: high-temperature fuel cells made of ceramic materials generate electric power from hydrogen. Hot water vapor is the only byproduct, and its energy is likewise used for heating. Central control panel for the entire house: homes will be highly networked; e-shopping as well as the intelligent lighting and heating systems are controlled centrally. Increasingly small transistors enhance the performance of microchips and flat screens. Reactive rug: sensors in rugs detect smoke and fire, or determine by pressure whether the presence prowling through the house is the cat or an intruder.

The scenarios point to alternative ways of estimating the demand for new materials and technologies. Engineer Eckard Foltin expands his drawing of the “future trumpet” by adding lengthwise paths inside the expanding trumpet horn: “It’s important for us to recognize when a development begins, in what direction it’s heading, and when the direction changes,” he explains, giving one of the paths a sudden downward turn.

Luminescent safety film: conductive plastics in three-dimensional shapes make bike helmets glow. Two-wheelers are a major means of personal transportation. Invisible loudspeakers: panels made of a special polyurethane and installed inside the wall function as loudspeakers. You can listen to music or the radio without boxy loudspeakers. RFID chips control the distribution of goods: new plastic sheaths will make radio frequency identification (RFID) chips so inexpensive that they can be used everywhere in freight transport. Goods are delivered underground in automated conveyor systems. In supermarkets, you can leave your purchases in the cart when checking out.

For this reason, the futurists repeatedly examine whether or not their scenarios are still realistic. “We naturally can’t predict exactly what will happen in the end,” Foltin says. However, that is not their objective. The goal is to identify alternatives and systematically prepare for the various possibilities that we all will face. “The value of our work lies in our ability to set the scenes for the development of products that will be needed in the future. That means that we have to deal intensively with tomorrow today.”

(Extracted from Bayer Research N° 17)

For further information:
www.izt.de/english
Information on various research projects conducted by the Institute of Futures Studies and Technology Assessment in Berlin .

Ir a In different directions
Ir a Oligocenters Scenario: exclusive high-tech
Ir a Polycenters Scenario: technology for the middle class